On August 9 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their sixth assessment report.
The cumulative work of 234 scientists across 66 countries, is the most extensive report ever made on the climate system and climate change.
As wildfires, floods and disease inundate many parts of the world and garner a larger focus in world news, the IPCC Assessment breaks down the weather events being seen today and forecasts what we can expect to see in the near future.
IPCC Temperature Forecasts
The projected increase of global surface temperature between now and 2100 was divided into five seperate greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
The lowest emission scenario (SSP1-1.9) being the immediate and rapid reduction of emissions, net-zero emissions globally reached by 2050 and continual carbon sequestration from the atmosphere.
The worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) follows a trajectory of continued reliance on fossil-fuels and high population growth.
Under current emissions pledges among states, we can expect to see a temperature increase similar to the intermediate scenario (SSP2-4.5).
Every scenario outlined exceeds the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree target by approximately 2030 to 2035. They note that with every 0.5 degree warming comes a palpable rise in intensity and frequency of hot extremes. Extreme heatwaves, drought, water stress, extreme precipitation, loss and extinction of species, rising sea levels, threats to human livelihoods and health are just some likely features of these hot extremes.
The IPCC states the events observed when we pass 1.5 degrees Celsius will be “unprecedented in the observational record”.
Australia in the Hotseat
The report has sparked fierce debate in Australia, a country where climate scepticism and outright denial are still distinct voices in media and Parliament.
In light of the IPCC’s findings, Scott Morrison reasserted his policy of “technology, not taxes” and again refused to commit to a target of net-zero emissions by 2050. Australia is now one of only five countries who have not pledged to do so.
The attention of Morrison’s press conference was overwhelmingly centred on the emissions of China and the developing world. But as our Prime Minister chose to focus on climate policies elsewhere, global scrutiny was placed squarely on Australia.
“Ethically, the toll of inaction is incalculable”, noted Former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon.
“Economically failing to set ambitious, credible targets in line with the rest of the world poses a huge threat to Australia’s future prosperity and international standing.”
Queensland Nationals senator Matt Canavan’s labelling of the report as “fear porn” is reflective of a country that is lagging behind the rest of the world in both rhetoric and policy.
Science denialism and scepticism is binding Australia to the same debates of 20 years ago, while comparable nations reconstruct themselves to adapt and contribute to the coming decades outlined by the IPCC.
