On the 24th of June 2016, the world woke to the news that the United Kingdom would be leaving the European Union.
In a shock decision, 51.9% of voters backed the ‘leave campaign’.
EU Referendum Results
Beautiful, easy data visualization and storytelling
Brexit had begun.
It has now been more than three years since the referendum, but Westminster and Brussels are still trying to negotiate the terms of the U.K.’s withdrawal from the European Union.
As the months have dragged on, politicians, diplomats and the press keep circling back to one issue.
The Irish Border.
Throughout the negotiations, the U.K. government has said they are committed to avoiding a ‘hard border’.
“Even Boris Johnson, who is probably one of the most pro-Brexit people in the House of Commons, wants a border as frictionless as possible,” Foreign Policy Editorial Fellow Dan Haverty said.
During her time as Prime Minister, Theresa May negotiated the infamous backstop deal with the EU.
The backstop was an ‘insurance policy’ and would only kick in at the end of the transition period if the two parties failed to reach a trade agreement which maintained the open Irish border.
The backstop would require the UK to remain in the EU customs territory and Northern Ireland to conform to additional EU rules for an indefinite period of time.
This would allow an open Irish land border but require regulatory checks on goods crossing between Northern Ireland and Great Britain (this became known as the ‘Irish Sea Border’).
But the U.K. parliament rejected the deal three times and ultimately, Theresa May.
Earlier this month Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a new proposal, dubbed “two borders for four years” to mixed reactions.
Under Johnson’s plan, the entire U.K. would leave the customs union, meaning goods crossing the Irish border would be crossing a legal customs border and therefore subject to tariffs.
The UK claims declarations can be done electronically, and physical checks carried out at designated locations away from the land border (including upon entry to Northern Ireland).
But critics say this is an unrealistic proposal for monitoring goods subject to import taxes.
Meanwhile goods in Northern Ireland would continue to follow the rules of the EU’s single market, subject to the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive’s approval every four years (beginning January 2025).
This means there would need to be regulatory checks on goods crossing between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, but not those crossing the Irish land border.
The EU and the UK government have agreed to a version of the deal, but Boris Johnson still faces a major obstacle – the UK parliament.
We must now wait to find out whether this latest development will lead to a last-minute deal, or if it will instead face the same fate that awaited Theresa May’s backstop.
While the headlines may vary from week to week, one fact will not change.
The October 31st deadline – by which Britain must leave the E.U with a deal, or as ruled by the UK parliament, ask for an extension – is fast approaching.
