In the six months before moving to Melbourne, I had countless people warn me to prepare for the “unpredictable weather”. A stranger went as far as to approach me and warn me that I would never survive the “monstrosity that is Melbourne weather”.
Well, I’ve lived here for a year and a half now and I have survived this far—but I do see the point of those that warned me. Since moving here I have experienced rain, sun, wind and hail… and that was just day one.
So why does Melbourne have this ever-changing weather, and how can we predict the so-called “unpredictable”?
(Georgia Trier)
“It’s as simple as which way the wind blows,” says Dean Narramore, Senior meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology.
“Melbourne is perfectly situated between the desert to the North and the cold air to the South, so when you change the wind direction, you pretty much almost instantly change the weather. ”
Narramore says the Australian desert is directly North of Melbourne and is host to a lot of hot dry air. Then directly South of us (excluding Tasmania) is uninterrupted water all the way to Antartica, which means a lot of cold air and water.
“Now why this is all important is because our weather systems come from West to East year round,” Narramore says.
“Ahead of our weather systems we generally have those northerly winds that are obviously dragging down those hot dry winds which is why we get those 35 to 40 degree days in Summer, but, behind these weather systems we actually have southerly winds which drag the cold air up from Antarctica and the Southern Ocean.”
Although this is how the wind affects our seasons, any change in wind direction during these times can result in a drastic change of weather, says Narramore.
“That’s why, particularly in summer when it’s 40 degrees, a cool change will come in and then it’s drizzling and it gets quite cold.”
“Check the forecast,” says Narramore.
It seems obvious — but Narramore explains that there are a few factors that really help to get a good picture of what the weather will look like, that people often don’t see:
- What direction is the wind blowing? If it is coming from the South, it is likely that the temperature will be cooler and there might even be a bit of rain.
- Is there predicted to be a wind change? Just because the wind is coming from the North at the start of the day, doesn’t mean it won’t change. Make sure to double check the wind direction to avoid being caught out in the cold.
- How far ahead are you trying to predict the weather? With Melbourne’s ever-changing weather, and the uncontrollable wind, Narramore says that meteorologists won’t have the best forecast of the weather until at least a few days before, with the prediction getting more accurate, the closer to the day.
Narramore’s final suggestion to Melburnians wanting to avoid being caught out by Melbourne’s weather?
“Pack for summer in the morning and winter in the afternoon”.
(Featured Image: Georgia Trier)
