More than 50,000 students who began university in Australia in 2018 will drop out, according to a new Grattan Institute report.
The Grattan Institute developed a model using factors like field of study, admission marks, age, sex, nationality, etc., to predict an individual’s chance of completing university.
Authors of the report Andrew Norton and Ittima Cherastidtham argued the government should be providing individualized valuations of the likelihood of dropping out of university.
Norton, Grattan’s higher educational program director, says that some of the blame lies with the universities,
“Too many students drop out of Australia’s universities, fewer would if we helped them to make better decisions.”
Students from Federal University in Victoria, Charles Darwin University and the University of Southern Queensland were the least likely to complete their degrees according to the report.
Main factors for the spike in dropouts the past ten years are students who study off-campus, part-time students and students with low ATAR scores.
From 2008-2016 a quarter of students did not complete a degree within that eight-year period.
Cherastidtham calls for governments and universities to do more to alert potential students to their risk factors.
“With better advice, some prospective part-time students may opt to study full-time,” the authors said.
Year 12 academic results are an important factor on a student’s decision whether or not to go to university. Recently, schools have been improving in assisting students transitioning into university and being honest whether the student should continue their studies (depending on their ATAR score).
Students with ATARs below 60 are twice as likely to drop out of university than students with ATARs above 90.
Also, only half of students with ATARs between 30 and 49 complete their degree within eight years.
But if it doesn’t work out for some, universities should help students exit at the least possible cost.
Financial circumstances are a major reason why students leave, for example, students having to pay $12,000 for their incomplete course, once they decide to drop out.
“We can and should aim to reduce the number of young Australians who leave university with nothing but debt and regret,” said Norton.
Norton and Cherastidtham, however, agree not all the blame should be placed on the universities.
Students who are disengaged, failing to attend classes and hand in assessments should be disenrolled before the second semester rather than at the end of the first year.
