The Brownlow – Best Player or Best Midfielder?

It’s been 26 years since a player other than a midfielder has won The Brownlow Medal.

This is despite the outstanding seasons of non-midfielders such as Brodie Grundy who finished top in the SuperCoach rankings last year, yet only placed 10th in the 2018 Brownlow. Similarly, Todd Goldstein, Alex Rance, and legends of the game such as Ted Whitten, John Coleman, Wayne Carey, and, to date, Buddy Franklin, have also missed out. None were midfielders.

The Brownlow is awarded to the player that receives the most best and fairest votes from field umpires in the home and away season, and is seen as the highest accolade for individual players in the AFL.

The award has long been viewed as the ‘midfielder’s medallion’, and a close analysis confirms that in the modern game, non-midfielder candidates have the odds stacked against them.

The introduction of the third field umpire in 1993 “significantly changed the nature of the award”, and “on-ball players are now far more likely to be noticed … with the average winning total having increased significantly from 22 votes to 25” according to Monash University senior statistician Associate Professor Michael Bailey.

Brownlow Winners by Playing Position (Pre-1993)

Brownlow Winners by Playing Position (1993-onwards)

Source: AFL Tables, Wikipedia, AFL Club Websites

So is the Brownlow in fact rewarding the “best” player, or simply the players who are more visible to the umpires?

Umpires don’t release their reasons for voting for particular players, so we may never know. A retrospective statistical analysis of players who gained the most votes shows one common factor – they tend to be in the midfield.

There seems to be little correlation with, for example, the Champion Data/SuperCoach rankings of players. These rankings are based on complex statistics which analyse each player’s impact on a game. While not perfect, the system does provide a more objective basis for comparing players achievements.

Player ranked No.1 in SuperCoach Player Ratings by Position

Source: SuperCoach App, Footywire.com

Winning The Brownlow Medal gives AFL footballers enormous currency. Players who can add “Brownlow Medallist” to their footy resume command high salaries, and are more likely to land media commentary and other prestigious roles post-AFL.

Given the high stakes, the opaque system of field umpires awarding votes on undisclosed criteria seems antiquated and unfair.

Perhaps it’s time to give the Brownlow Medal a makeover.